EU Threatened Trump Exit Greenland Tariffs or Else
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The Greenland Standoff: A Sudden About-Face
US President Donald Trump was going to put tariffs on eight EU nations that opposed his aims for Greenland’s acquisition, and there was chatter of using the US military to accomplish the United States’ goals. Then, after Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has a very good relationship with Donald Trump, all of this talk vanished and there was a shocking, radical change—an about-face. Trump agreed to take the military option off the table and suspend the tariffs. What caused this sudden change? I will tell you what caused it: the European Union threatened Donald Trump.
Loading the Trade Bazooka
In two previous broadcasts, I talked about the European Union’s three nuclear options, and one of them—the Trade Bazooka—became the topic of a following broadcast. By the time Trump landed at Davos, the big bazooka that French President Emmanuel Macron put his stamp on and called for was officially being loaded, and EU leaders had their hands on the trigger. It was planned to be launched in under two weeks. So, most likely, Mark Rutte informed Donald Trump of the bazooka—a.k.a. the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument—and the devastation it would have had on the US economy. After learning of the scope of this threat to the United States, Donald Trump understood that he could not go forward with his policy.
The "Gentle" Approach of Ursula von der Leyen
The EU threatened Trump, but when you listen to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, she made it sound like they took a gentle approach. This is what she had to say:
"So what did we do? First of all, there was, as you said Antonio, equivocal solidarity with Greenland and Denmark. Second, we also stood firmly with the six member states that were threatened with tariffs. Third point, we engaged very actively with the United States on various levels. Um, we did so in a firm but non-escalatory manner. And the fourth point was that we are well prepared with trade counter-measures and non-tariff instruments if tariffs would have been applied. So to sum up, we followed four key principles: firmness, outreach, preparedness, and unity—and it was effective. So going forward, we should maintain this very approach."
Transactional Diplomacy and Saving Face
Ursula von der Leyen was being modest. Essentially, the EU threatened Trump with the bazooka and explained how their retaliatory measures would decimate the US economy. Afterwards, Trump told reporters at Davos that he and Rutte had "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and... the entire Arctic Region." He described it as a "very productive meeting" and claimed that the allies were now "seeing things my way" because of the national security risks. He went so far as to call the framework a "deal that's forever" and an "infinite deal," framing the European cooperation as a total victory for his transactional diplomacy.
The Shift: From Bazooka to Investment
After Davos, Ursula von der Leyen and Mette Frederiksen (Danish PM) changed the conversation. They stopped talking about the "Trade Bazooka" and started talking about a "Substantive Investment Package" for Greenland. NATO’s New Focus: Frederiksen explicitly called for a "permanent NATO presence in the Arctic," specifically around Greenland. This allowed the Europeans to address Trump’s "national security" fears (Russian and Chinese influence) without actually ceding an inch of territory.
Conclusion: The Empire Awakens
Trump framed the European cooperation as a total victory for his transactional diplomacy, and this is how he was able to save face after what happened behind closed doors—that literally caused him to do a complete turnaround. So, what the world saw was this total about-face, but not what was said behind the scenes.
Here is the real question: after the European Union’s “or else” to Donald Trump—"you hit our nations with sanctions over Greenland and we are going to hit you with the Trade Bazooka"—after penning his National Security Strategy where he said the EU was going to fall apart in 20 years due to immigration and other issues, were his eyes opened to the empire that is now an equal on the world stage? I believe there were discussions with his key advisors that took place when he got back to Washington, and we are going to see a different policy toward the EU than before. I venture to say that within that room, there is now panic.