The European Union’s Middle East Blindspot: Why Brussels Is Losing Relevance in a Changing Region
By Erika Grey
Welcome to Erika Grey Reports. My guest today has a front-row seat to the historic diplomatic shifts transforming the Middle East. Born in Beirut, educated across the globe, and now serving as the Senior Rabbi Emeritus in the United Arab Emirates and the Association of Gulf Jewish Communities, Rabbi Abadi joins me to discuss what fundamental reality the European Union has completely failed to see.
The Two-State Solution: An Idea of the Past
Erika Grey:
In reality on the ground, we see that the two-state solution is an idea that is passé. It did not work over the 30 years since the Oslo Accords, which were supposed to be a precursor to a two-state solution. We saw that fail with the Second and Third Intifadas, the repeated wars in Gaza, and continuous terrorist attacks originating from Judea and Samaria under PA leadership.
Rabbi Abadi:
It is unfortunate that Europe is always late to the game, so to speak. They are always late in realizing the dangers and in realizing that their preferred reality is no longer workable—it is something of the past.
It took them time to understand Nazi Germany and Hitler's leadership until it was almost too late. It is taking them too long to understand that uncontrolled immigration and a complete opening of borders is destroying Europe as we know it. Europe always wakes up very late, when there is almost no way to go back.
It is the same thing with the two-state solution. They are still clinging to an idea that has demonstrated it does not work. It is no longer acceptable to Israel, and as you can see from many protests, it is not acceptable to the Arab Palestinians either—they demand "from the river to the sea," which is a one-state solution, not a two-state solution. They do not want to see a Jewish state in the region.
Had they accepted Israel as a neighbor, peace would have reigned from the Oslo Accords, or even earlier from 1948. But living alongside a Jewish Israeli state has been rejected repeatedly. Hopefully, Europe will eventually open its eyes and ears to realize that this policy is no longer viable.
Delusions of Grandeur and the Struggle for Relevance
Erika Grey:
The European Union wants to be a geopolitical player—that was the core objective of Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission. Yet, it is losing influence in the Middle East. How is its rigid two-state policy preventing it from becoming a key geopolitical player? You are on the ground, experiencing these trends, and interacting with citizens across the UAE.
Rabbi Abadi:
Europe suffers from a delusion of grandeur. For millennia, Europe set the tone of global civilization and decided world affairs through colonization across South America, North America, Africa, and the Far East. For the last century, however, Europe has ceased to be the center of world attention or the pacesetter of civilization.
Europe struggles with this reality and constantly tries to regain its former position. But as the United States and other major powers took center stage, Europe was pushed aside.
Erika Grey:
How do we convince them that their strategy is no longer viable?
Rabbi Abadi:
They cling to it because they want relevance in the Middle East. Unfortunately for them, they are no longer relevant in the Middle East—or anywhere in the world, really.
Israel no longer accepts a policy that proved detrimental over 30 years. The Arab Palestinians deep down want one Palestinian state, not a Jewish state. Thus, the European stance is irrelevant. Europe will either realize this position is unattainable, or the region will make it clear to them.
Internal Decline vs. Projected Economic Power
Erika Grey:
You cannot ignore the EU's extensive trade network and 84 trade pacts. There are definite parallels between Europe and ancient Babylon—a massive hub for trade, which created its power. We see the EU as an economic giant, with major structural proposals on the table (like the Letta and Draghi reports, and Capital Markets Union) alongside further expansion to up to 10 more nations.
Looking ahead 4 to 5 years, do you foresee Europe remaining an economic giant while having zero political relevance in the Middle East?
Rabbi Abadi:
Like previous empires—from the Egyptians, Greeks, and Babylonians to the Romans and the Spanish 500 years ago—they demonstrate strength in commerce, yet implode from within. Historical empires withered from internal dismemberment rather than outside forces, and that is happening to Europe today.
While they may project economic strength, politically and socially Europe is in decline. Furthermore, new Eastern European member states bring a completely different historical perspective. After 70 years under communism, Eastern Europeans learned its dangers, whereas Western Europe is ironically leaning toward socialism.
Europeans may project economic power, but internal disruption is visible in major cities across France, Milan, London, and beyond. Ultimately, the EU and individual European states will act out of economic self-interest, setting aside political ideology when necessary.
Historical Antisemitism and the Position of European Jewry
Erika Grey:
There is a clear fracture in European foreign policy among member states, alongside policies toward Iran that allowed the infiltration of extremist groups into Europe. This fracture and demographic shift are driving a rise in antisemitism. How are Israel and European Jews reacting? Is there an exodus of Jews from the EU, and is Israel effectively divorcing Europe?
Rabbi Abadi:
Let's look at history. Antisemitism in Europe is nothing new. For 2,000 years, Europe has persecuted Jews through inquisitions, pogroms, and the Holocaust. The only brief period where antisemitism receded below the surface was immediately after World War II. If you scratch the surface, antisemitism has been the norm in Europe for two millennia.
It is time for European Jews to leave Europe and move somewhere safer, presumably Israel. Western Europe is no longer safe for Jews. During recent riots in France, supposedly focused on educational policies, Jewish-owned businesses were specifically targeted and vandalized in cities like Marseille and Paris.
As for Israel "divorcing" Europe: Israel maintains strong economic ties with the EU, but it will continually seek ways to become completely independent. European countries will maintain commercial relations out of economic self-interest, not out of love for Israel.
I do not see a bright future for Europe. I foresee growing internal conflict, while Israel gradually disengages politically, and eventually economically.
Israel as a Regional Powerhouse and the Abraham Accords
Erika Grey:
Israel is the cornerstone of the Middle East. The European Union fails to see that it needs to court Israel. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner, and Israel is integrated into critical technology and research programs that benefit Europe.
Furthermore, looking at Iran, the signs point toward an eventual regime change. When a democratic Iran emerges, Israel will be right there. What does the EU stand to lose if it stays on its current path?
Rabbi Abadi:
Money talks. When it comes to trade, Europe will do whatever serves its financial interest despite political differences.
Regarding Iran: A future without the current regime will transform the entire Middle East, and even Europe will benefit as Iranian sleeper and terrorist cells are neutralized. Cutting off the head of the snake renders the rest inactive.
Middle Eastern nations now recognize that Israel is a power to reckon with. While maintaining its vital alliance with the United States, Israel is accelerating its self-reliance in military technology, cyber security, defense manufacturing, and AI.
The leadership in neighboring Arab states understands this. The most effective way for them to thrive is to join Israel peacefully through trade, commerce, and technology exchange. This shift began with the Abraham Accords (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan). As leaders in the UAE recognize, Israel is a regional power, and it would be unwise not to participate in that progress.
Countries that refuse normalization risk remaining failed states with low economic output and literacy, while those embracing regional integration will thrive.
The EU Pact for the Mediterranean vs. Real Regional Integration
Erika Grey:
Are you familiar with the European Union’s Union for the Mediterranean and its various initiatives? It seems like a rehashing of old policies in new packaging.
Rabbi Abadi:
The EU pact is simply rehashing old concepts. Europe wants to feel relevant and avoid being left behind, but its policies keep it stuck in the past. Instead of jumping on the bandwagon of the Abraham Accords to expand regional growth, they stick to outdated objections.
Erika Grey:
If they had stronger, more pragmatic relations with Israel, Israel could actually help advance regional initiatives. Their rigid policy—which dates back to 1980—is essentially frozen.
Rabbi Abadi:
Correct. The longer European leaders cling to these outdated frameworks, the further behind they will fall. European leaders need to open their minds and realize that active participation in the future development of the Middle East requires moving past the policies of the past.
Conclusion
Rabbi Abadi is a wealth of knowledge, and his insights highlight the dramatic realignment occurring in the Middle East—a realignment that Europe risks missing entirely if it remains bound to outdated geopolitical doctrine.
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