Transcript: Is Israel Preparing for a Strategic Divorce from the EU? In this episode of Erika Grey Reports, Erika Grey sits down with Alex Selski, Senior Advisor to the Middle East Forum and former advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Together, they analyze why the EU desperately needs Israel for energy security, trade routes like IMEC, and counter-terrorism—and explore the geopolitical levers Jerusalem can pull to challenge Brussels' outdated foreign policy.
For 45 years, the European Union's policy towards Israel has remained frozen in the 1980 Venice Declaration. But as diplomatic pressures mount and European anti-Semitism surges, is Jerusalem finally preparing for a strategic divorce?
Today we examine whether Israel is ready to punch above its weight and what leverage it actually holds over Brussels. Welcome to Erika Grey Reports. I'm Erika Grey, and joining me today is Alex Selski, senior advisor to the Middle East Forum and former advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Drawing on the concept of Pax Israeliana, we are breaking down why the EU desperately needs Israel for its own economic stability and Middle East relevance, and what exact levers Jerusalem can pull next.
Now, Israel is facing relentless harassment from the European Union, whose dated 45-year-old two-state policy continues to fuel rising anti-Semitism. Essentially, Israel is being bullied by the European Union. Given that the EU desperately needs Israel to achieve its domestic geoeconomic aims and its geopolitical relevance in the Middle East, what levers can Jerusalem pull to punch above its weight?
Alex: Well, Erika, I would like to go back—not a few years, but a few thousand years—to remind our European friends that they were those who took the Jews out from their homeland, brought them by force to Europe, and then expelled Jews every time the Jews succeeded in doing something serious and contributing to a new country where they found a home.
And unfortunately, it happened at almost every place where Jews lived, found a home, and contributed. Jews contributed to European countries and to European peoples more than any minority in Europe, in every field—in science, in culture, in medicine, in philosophy. You should not even need to remind people that the philosophy that stands as the basis to Christianity is Judaism. There is a saying that in the Christian or European home, the ideas are Jewish and the home is Greek.
And unfortunately, what we got in return was primarily murder and expulsion. My family name on my mother's side is Israel, so we don't have any doubt where we came from. I came back to Israel from the former Soviet Union, where my mother's family escaped from Poland because of the Holocaust. To Poland, apparently, they escaped from Spain because of the Inquisition—and to Spain, also not because of good luck.
If we relate to your question more specifically, I think that unfortunately Europeans don't get the idea after 2,000 years of being used to punching Jews and not paying prices. They are just used to the fact that they can dictate to Jews how to live, and Jews will listen and be forced to do whatever Europeans say.
But the reality has changed. We have our state. We're strong. We are a geopolitical, military, economic, scientific, and technological power or superpower. The days when Jews were a homeless, weak minority without the ability to defend themselves are over. I think we have to force—sorry for that language—our partners to understand that either you do business with Jews, or if you want to dictate, you will pay a price. If you want to kill Jews, you will pay a very, very significant, painful price. They have to understand that.
Erika: So what levers does Israel have right now?
Alex: Israel has many levers.
First of all, Israel has military leverage. Consider the different pressures that were somehow supported by the European Union—for example, the Palestinian struggle against Jews to establish their state, which a majority of Israelis would not agree to as another terror state next to Jerusalem; and dancing tango with Iran, forgiving all the military pressure from Iran and financial pressure from Qatar. I think everybody understood during the last three years that this pressure will not work. That is one.
Second is economic leverage. Israel today is starting to be a very significant player not only in the technological market, cyber market, AI market, and telecommunication market, but Israel is starting to be a significant gas exporter to Europe.
Erika: Yes! And all of those areas you just mentioned are the exact areas that the European Union needs Israel to achieve its aims.
Alex: Exactly. But wait, we'll get to others. First of all, let's speak about the gas. Everybody understands that Europe has a gas shortage problem since the war between Russia and Ukraine. What is the substitute? It's either Qatari gas or energy from less stable, less safe countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey, which will demand prices that Europe doesn't want to pay.
Now, Israel is a much better energy partner than all the others I mentioned. I think that they understand that. Israel can be a better energy partner not only than other Middle Eastern players, but also better than Russia. Israel is now building an infrastructure to cooperate with East Mediterranean European countries and to establish this export through Cyprus and Greece, then Italy, and right into Central Europe.
This bypasses Turkey and the Turkish ability to bring Qatari gas through Syria—which is now more under Turkish control—to sell it as a possible route. But I hope that Europeans understand... The problem with Europeans is that they look only to short-term revenues and interest. They don't understand that they have to look 30 and 50 years from now and realize that if they choose partners like Qatar and Turkey, they will not be democratic and they will not be safe. Israel must be a European partner in energy, electricity, and every other energy source.
Another area where Israel can definitely help provide knowledge is in fighting terror—fighting the terror that unfortunately comes into Europe because of immigration policies. Israel has this experience and technology. We know about many Israeli companies in cybersecurity that are second to none in the world, and they can definitely contribute.
The problem is that Europeans—again, not all of them, but definitely the more progressive political wings—try to buy off the forces that demand more rights for immigrants instead of fighting for their identity. I think that Europeans will pay the price, unfortunately, much sooner than later, and they're already paying this price.
Another thing I wanted to mention is trade and shipment routes. Israel has a very significant geopolitical location. Let's recall a very important fact: in September 2023, American President Joe Biden came to the G20 conference and launched IMEC (the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), which was meant to be an alternative to the Chinese Belt and Road initiative.
The Chinese initiative was planned to bring Chinese products into Europe through Central Asia, Iran, Turkey, and Russia. The IMEC initiative was meant to bring India—as a substitute for China as a world producer—to Europe through Arab countries: Oman, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and then Israel. From Israel, you are already in Cyprus, Greece, and inside Europe.
Mohammed bin Salman announced at the end of September 2023 that he was ready to sign a normalization agreement with Israel, because only two states within IMEC didn't have diplomatic relationships: Saudi Arabia and Israel. October 7th happened two weeks later. So we understand today that October 7th was definitely encouraged—we don't know if it was fully planned by them, but definitely encouraged and used by Iran—to sabotage this cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, to stop this initiative under an American umbrella, and to prevent bringing India into Europe.
I hope that Europeans will understand that they need such initiatives much more in the long run. We had an annual conference with the Middle East Forum in May in Washington, and I moderated a panel about IMEC. I had the deputy ambassador of the European Union to the United States on the panel, and she spoke about the fact that the European Union is committed to IMEC and understands the interest of Europe in IMEC very well.
Israel here is a critical player because you cannot bypass Israel. If you go north, you go to Turkey and Syria. If you go south, you go to Egypt, which is not sure to cooperate because it competes with the Suez Canal. Israel is democratic, developed, stable, culturally close, and rich. The infrastructure is there—it's not Jordan, it's not Saudi Arabia. This is another example of a very big, significant project where Europeans need Israel.
Erika: Israel can and should leverage what's being done at the diplomatic level. Because Israel is taking a lot of harassment over this two-state solution, which is so dated, what can you do diplomatically to say to the European Union: "Look, we're giving you this, and if you continue on the path that you're on with this policy, we're going to not give you this anymore." Is Israel close to saying something like that, to divorcing Europe?
Alex: Diplomatically, I think that Israelis should just learn to say no. Just learn to say no.
Erika: Why can't Israel do that? Why can't Israel—let's face it, Israel is a super-nation. It doesn't even fit any other category of nations because it's a super-nation. I mean, that's the category. With everything that it brings to the table to the European Union through the Association Agreement, Israel is also the cornerstone for Middle East policy. So if Europe really wants its Pact for the Mediterranean to succeed, it's going to need Israel. Why will Israel not say to the EU: "Drop your two-state policy"? Because let me face it, the two-state policy is all about the annihilation of Israel.
Alex: Erika, there are many reasons, but I would like to mention one which I think people don't understand.
We Jews were in the diaspora for 2,000 years. We've been a weak, homeless, defenseless minority. For 2,000 years, we forgot what sovereignty means. When we got back and established a sovereign state, we didn't realize it yet—but I think we are waking up slowly but surely, and October 7th definitely contributed to that. We understand that sovereignty is power. Israel is only now understanding that sovereignty is about being strong, saying no, and if needed, fighting those who question you.
We will get to times when Europeans will get used to the fact that Jews have a right to live. Jews are back, and we aren't going anywhere.
Erika: Is Israel feeling strong enough to say: "Hey, we give you X, Y, and Z, and we're not going to continue doing this"? You're giving them brain power through the Horizon programs. You're giving them a lot of your talent right now, and you're being bullied.
Alex: Israel definitely will start speaking as you just suggested. Israel definitely will start being stronger, presenting stronger positions, and not being the punching bag for European policies that it was in the past.
We see that the Foreign Minister was very strict in his reaction to British declarations about Israel. Again, we don't want to fight with Europeans. We want to cooperate, and we want to be in full economic cooperation. But the times when European countries were intervening, pressing us, and telling Jews how to live and where to live are over. We don't intervene in British politics—and believe me, they have problems. We don't intervene in Spanish politics, and they have problems. Everybody has problems.
So leave us in peace, do business with us, don't press us, and definitely don't press us on things that risk our security. We are not going back. We don't have any other place. We are back, we're strong, and we'll do everything to provide security to ourselves. After October 7th, we are waking up, and we will be much stronger in our foreign policy.
Erika: I have noticed that with Gideon Sa'ar with the Netherlands—he turned around and countered with sanctions against certain officials, and he also hit back at Kaja Kallas when she said that Israel was committing apartheid. I find it very interesting what you said a little bit earlier: that you're going to see some decisions coming down where Israel is not going to take the bullying or the geopolitical anti-Semitism standards that you see for other nations.
You see different standards for Israel. Israel has to be granted permission to defend itself? Give me a break.
Alex: Yeah. Again, Israel has many levers: technological, geopolitical, political, energy, military.
By the way, you know what is funny? We see all these European countries openly criticize Israel, and then crawl to Israeli defense companies asking to buy their products. The Israeli defense industry is at its peak. Five to seven years ahead, there are agreements to produce because they just can't keep up with demand.
This double standard—where you buy from Israel, you really want Israeli products, and then you go and shout at Israel—is over. I hope that Israeli leadership understands that. I see a shift in the Israeli public to understand this, and I'm sure that in the future it will be different.
Erika: Israel is the key to the West. Israel is very important for two major empires. The United States sees it, but I don't believe that the European Union sees it. Deep down I think they do, because there are possibly hundreds of articles on how they should end this Association Agreement. Well, if they end the Association Agreement, deep down they know they're really just going to hurt themselves because they're getting Israeli brain power—which they desperately need for their green tech, for their AI, and like you said, defense. It's over 50% of sales to the European Union.
Alex: Yes. You know what is most offensive in all of that? We fight for their security. We fight Iran, which is the danger to their security, and then they come to us and continue to demand things that will weaken us.
We saw the German Chancellor who said last June—I remind you—that "we have to thank Israel for doing the dirty work for us all." So they understand that, but they don't want to fight with Iran; they want to appease it. They don't want to fight with the Palestinians; they want to appease them.
We saw what Chamberlain achieved by appeasement of Hitler, and unfortunately, history repeats. Their appeasement will bring them to decline, not to security. We don't have a choice. We cannot appease our enemies. We have to fight them and win, and that's what we're going to do.
Erika: Well, I think that sounds great. Are there any final statements that you'd like to make on the topic of Europe's two-state policy?
Alex: Europe and the West have to understand... We see a lot of Americans and Europeans who think—or say they think—that Americans and Europeans pay the price for supporting Israel. But I think the truth is exactly the opposite: Israel is paying the price for fighting for America and for Europe.
The Islamist terror that comes from the Middle East comes to Israel because we are near. Europeans are further, and Americans are so far. If these Islamists and Hamas could reach Americans, they would kill Americans. We are the front liner for American and European security. Americans and Europeans have to greet us and help us because we fight for them. It's not the opposite—it's not that they support and fight for us. That's something that I think they don't understand, unfortunately, or they just don't want to admit.
I invite everybody to visit the Middle East Forum website, read the Middle East Forum Observer and our research, sign up for our newsletters, and read our materials. Again, we fight Iran and Iran's proxies—which, after Israel, will come to Europe. They are already coming to Europe. The influence within Europe by Iran and Qatar, backed by Russia and China, is so big. I hope Europeans understand that and are ready to fight it, because otherwise, Europe will not remain as they want it to be, much sooner than later.
Erika: And that sounds like a really good leverage point to get them to knock out this two-state policy right there—just that point alone.
It was wonderful having you. Thank you. A tremendous thank you to Alex Selski for breaking down the strategic realities on the ground today in Israel. The insights he shared give us a lot to consider as this situation continues to unfold.
Thank you for tuning in to Erika Grey Reports. Be sure to check out the Middle East Forum—the links are below. Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and we'll see you in the next episode!
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